2018年3月30日 星期五

行為經濟得重要理論

展望理論:投資者面對利得和損失的時候會有不同的態度。
  •  原賦效果(Endowment Effect) Thaler(1980)提出
當你擁有某項物品時,你對該物品的評價會比沒有擁有時高出許多,又稱為安於現狀的偏誤 (Status Quo Bias) 
  • 沈沒成本效果( Sunk Cost Effect)
當你支付入會費後,會增加使用的頻率。如 Costco。
  •  保守偏誤
人們傾向堅持既定觀點,難於接受新想法或新作法,而導致反應不足。
  • 過度自信
經常會過於相信自己,高估自己的知識與控制能力,低估風險。
  • 代表性偏誤:
會已經驗法則或過去的刻板印象來處理。」
  • 易獲性偏誤:
容易讓人聯想到的事件,會誤以為經常發生。
  • 模糊性嫌惡:
對於不熟悉的事物有排斥現象。
  • 定錨效應:(Anchor Effect)
過去發生的事件會成為今日的一個錨 (比較基準) 或bench mark。 

其他理論:

  •  邊際效用,
指的是當消費者多消費一單位,他所得到的效用,例如某人吃個一顆蘋果,一開始覺得很好吃,但吃到第五顆時已經沒什麼感覺,也就是第一顆蘋果所帶來的邊際效用較高,隨著數量增加,邊際效用會開始遞減,如果某個人不斷吃蘋果吃到嘔吐,表示邊際效用已經遞減到成為負值。
  • 比較優勢
某甲工廠生產棉花所需成本較乙工廠生產棉花低,但某乙工廠生產稻米成本較某甲工廠低,此時可稱某甲工廠在生產棉花上有「比較優勢」,某乙工廠在生產稻米上則有比較優勢,兩個工廠可以互相購買對方具有比較優勢的商品,來達到更低的成本。
  • 規模經濟
規模經濟指的是生產越多商品,其成本越低,規模經濟追求的是量大,如同二十四小時運作的工廠一樣,如果工廠沒有運作,則有閒置成本,此時若拿來繼續生產商品,則可以省去工廠閒置成本,因此生產越多,單位成本跟著下降。
  • 馬太效應
經濟學中的馬太效應,指的是「富有的人更富有,貧窮的人更貧窮。」也可以解釋為「強者愈強,弱者愈弱。」會有此現象的原因在於,富人因為有錢,所以更多資源讓自己更好,於是又讓自己更富有,窮人則因為沒有資源,缺少可以讓自己富有的條件,於是愈貧窮。
  • 80/20法則
又稱「帕列托法則」,近十年又有人稱為80/20法則。常見的80/20法則的說法有如下幾項:
一、百分之八十的果來自於百分之二十的因
二、百分之八十的成果來自於百分之二十的精力與時間
三、百分之八十的公司利潤來自於百分之二十的產品與客戶
四、百分之八十的股票市場獲利來自於百分之二十的投資人與百分之二十的投資組合賺得 









2018年3月19日 星期一

衡量指標


  • β (Beta) 值用來衡量標的(如 基金、或個股)的風險。
一般來說衡量基金和個股的風險會和一個標的來做比較,以個股而言,我們會和大盤作比較,那麼大盤的 Beta 值就是 1,而個股的 Beta 值可能是大於1、等於1或小於1。
Beta值(s、貝他值)用來衡量系統性風險、大盤連動性,也就是指數的波動幅度,Beta值越大、指數的波動性越大。
ex: 當 β = 0.8 時,代表著當大盤(比較標的)上漲 10%, 標的(個股)上漲 8%,
                                             當大盤(比較標的)下跌 10%, 標的(個股)下跌 8%。
  • α (Alpha) 值用來衡量報酬率
α 是指標的(基金或個股)根據β系數所計算的預期報酬,與其實質報酬間的差距。
α (Alpha) 常被解釋為基金經理人為該基金所提供的附加價值,換句話說就是高於基金指標指數的多超額報酬率。如果一檔基金能提供超越其風險(Beta)所應有的報酬率,它的Alpha為正值;反之,該基金的Alpha則為負值。
α值>0:投資組合跑贏基準指數,獲得了超額報酬,數值越大漲幅越大。
α值=0:投資組合與基準指數差不多,獲得了適當報酬。
α值<0:投資組合跑輸基準指數,獲得了較少報酬,數值越小跌幅越大。
  • Sharp 值用來衡量每單位風險所能換得的平均報酬率
Sharpe比例是採用標準差來計算基金的風險調整後的報酬。基金的Shapre值愈高,相對於風險的報酬愈佳。基金的標準差愈高,則所需的報酬要愈高才能取得較高的Sharpe比例。相反的,若基金的標準差值為一般,只需要較低的報酬即可取得較高的Sharpe值。
  • R-Squared 用來衡量標的(基金) 和 比較基準間的相關性 
R 平方是衡量一只基金業績變化在多大程度上可以由基準指數的變動來解釋,以0 至100 計。數值越小,說明業績基準變化與基金表現的相關性越低。標普500指數基金與標普500指數的R平方為100,而一只貨幣市場基金與該指數的R平方為 0。
  • Treynor  Ratio : 用來衡量超額報酬的無風險獲利比
Treynor Ratio 越高越好。
In other words, the Treynor ratio is a risk-adjusted measure of return based on systematic risk. It is similar to the Sharpe ratio, with the difference being that the Treynor ratio uses beta as the measurement of volatility.

風險的種類

  • 系統性風險
系統性風險又稱為市場風險(Market Risk),是一種不可分散的風險,係無法透過多角化的投資組合而分散掉的風險。
  1. 系統風險之所以無法分散或消除,主要是某些因素使得投資組合內的所有資產同漲同跌,無法相互抵銷風險。
  2. 此類風險主要來自一些基本政治、經濟或政策等因素之影響,例如通貨膨脹、政局不安、經濟衰退、利率變動等,所有企業或投資案均會受其影響無法避免。這部分風險是由那些影響整個市場的風險所引起的,例如:戰爭、政權更迭、自然災害、經濟周期、通貨膨脹、能源危機和宏觀政策調整。  
  3. 如果您想知道特定證券,基金或投資組合的系統風險程度,您可以查看其beta值,該度量標準衡量投資與整體市場的波動程度。 beta大於1意味著投資比市場具有更系統的風險,而小於1意味著系統風險低於市場。 等於1的beta意味著投資具有與市場相同的系統風險。 
  • 非系統風險(Unsystematic Risk)
又稱為非市場風險(Nonmarket Risk),是一種可分散的風險,係可透過多角化的投資組合而分散掉的風險。
  1. 此類風險主要來自產業、企業或投資個案等內部的特有風險,是由本身的商業活動和財務活動帶來的,例如罷工、法律訴訟、研究與開發、消費者需求改變、高階主管離職等

2015年9月28日 星期一

釘書機選購知識

市場上的有多種釘書機的樣式,如果,要選擇一款好用的釘書機的卻不是一個容易的事。

而釘書機的選購,個人認為應該從釘書針的了解開始。因為釘書針決定了你能釘的頁數。

目前通用的釘書針有 10 號、11 號及3號...等。從下圖就很容易看出這三種規格的差別。



10 號針:
市面上最常見針種,亞洲地區最常使用
使用普通訂書機,可訂約10張紙
使用省力訂書機,可訂到20張紙
針腳長度相同,但普通訂書機訂超過10張以上會比較吃力,也容易扭針

11 號針:
日本MAX市佔率高到自創的針種
全世界只有日本有用,台灣最近也有出現11號針&11號機
可以訂的張數比10號針多,價格也比較貴
在日本11號機取代了3號釘書機的市場。

3 號針:
深度和11號針一樣都是 6.0 mm, 但是3號針比11號針粗了0.2mm,在寬度上也粗了1.1 mm。

由針腳的長度來比較3號和11號針,似乎11號針可以取代3號針,因為他們都是6mm,相同的高度代表著可以裝訂的最大頁數應該是相差無幾。然而在釘書針的價格上11號針的價格卻比3號針貴上許多。價格比較如下圖所示:


10號
11號
3號
1000 支
7元
32元
11元
最多可釘頁數
2-24張
40-45張
40-45張


2014年9月22日 星期一

Understanding Fixed-Income Arbitrage

原文在此

Fixed-income arbitrage is an investment strategy that exploits pricing differentials between fixed-income securities.

固定收益套利是利用固定收益證券之間的價格差異投資策略。

Before we explain that, let’s review the concept of arbitrage. Arbitrage, at its most simplest, involves buying securities on one market for immediate resale on another market in order to profit from a price discrepancy. But in the hedge fund world, arbitrage more commonly refers to the simultaneous purchase and sale of two similar securities whose prices, in the opinion of the trader, are not in sync with what the trader believes to be their “true value.” Acting on the assumption that prices will revert to true value over time, the trader will sell short the overpriced security and buy the underpriced security. Once prices revert to true value, the trade can be liquidated at a profit. (Remember, short selling is simply borrowing a security you don’t own, selling it, then hoping it declines in value, at which time you can buy it back at a lower price than you paid for it and return the borrowed securities.) Arbitrage can also be used to buy and sell two stocks, two commodities and many other securities.

在我們解釋前,讓我們回顧一下套利的概念。套利,最簡單的,包括在一個市場上購買有價證券,在另一個市場上立即做空,為了從價格的矛盾中獲利。但在對沖基金的世界裡,套利更常見的是指同時買入和賣出兩個類似的證券,其真實的價格在交易者的眼中是不同步的。在這個假設得前提下行動,價格隨著時間過去,最終會回到真實價值的價格,因此交易者可以作多低估的股票,做空高估的股票。一旦價格回歸真實的價值,投資者將能在獲利下出清持股。(做空是簡單的借一張你不曾擁有的股票,然後賣掉它,並且期望它的價格下跌,然後將它用比較低的價格買回來,並且還回去 ) ,套利也可以被使用來買及賣兩隻股票、兩個商品及許多其他類型的股票。

Although many investors are unfamiliar with the term “fixed-income arbitrage” most have heard of one of its major users: Long Term Capital Management, a hedge fund that in the 1990s realized average annual returns of greater than 40%, then had to be bailed out by several Wall Street firms at the encouragement of the U.S. Federal Reserve Board.

雖然很多投資者不熟悉的術語“固定收益套利”大部分都聽過它的主要用戶之一:長期資本管理公司,在20世紀90年代實現了超過40%的年均回報率對沖基金,現在在美國聯邦儲備委員會的鼓勵下,透過幾個華爾街的大型機構保釋在外。

To understand fixed-income arbitrage, it is important to have some familiarity with fixed-income securities. At their most basic level, fixed-income securities are simply debt instruments, issued by private companies or public entities, which promise a fixed stream of income. U.S. Treasuries, corporate bonds and municipal bonds bonds are examples. There are, however, more sophisticated fixed-income securities, such as credit default swaps.

為了了解固定收益套利,對固定收益證券有一定的了解是很重要的。在他們最基本的層面上,固定收益證券是簡單的債務工具,由私人公司或公共實體,保證收益的固定流,美國國庫債券,公司債券和市政債券的債券就是例子。但是,更複雜的固定收益證券,如信貸違約交換。

Credit default swaps are complex financial instruments similar to insurance contracts in that they provide the buyer with protection against specific risks. So, for example, say you buy a corporate bond from Company ABC. You think the company will pay you back with interest, but it might default, and you invested a lot of money, so you want some added protection. So, you call your insurance company and ask it to sell you insurance against the possible default of Company ABC’s bonds. Your insurance company charges you a fee for that insurance, just as it would if you were buying car insurance or homeowner’s insurance. But here’s the catch: When it comes to credit default swaps, you don’t have to actually own the asset in order to insure it. Your insurance company is selling insurance on Company ABC’s stock to anyone. In other words, it’s selling pieces of paper—securities that fall into the “derivatives” category—called credit default swaps. And these pieces of paper are traded over-the-counter by sophisticated investors.

信用違約交換是複雜的金融工具類似保險合約,因為它們提供買方保護,防止特定風險。因此,舉例來說,假設你購買從ABC公司公司債券。你認為公司會還給你有興趣,但也可能違約,以及你投入了很多錢,所以你需要一些額外的保護。所以,你打電話給你的保險公司,並要求它賣給你投保的公司ABC的債券可能違約。您的保險公司會向您收取一定的費用保險,就像它,如果你買了汽車保險或房屋保險。但這裡的陷阱:當涉及到信用違約掉期,你不必實際擁有的資產,以確保它。您的保險公司對ABC公司的股票賣保險給任何人。換句話說,它是賣紙的證券碎片落入了“衍生產品”的範疇,稱為信用違約掉期。而這些紙片被交易過的非處方由經驗豐富的投資者。

The reason for that detailed explanation of credit default swaps, as you might have guessed, is that they are often used in fixed-income arbitrage. In fact, one of the most popular fixed-income arbitrage strategies is called “swap-spread arbitrage.” While swap-spread arbitrage is too complex a topic to explain in full here, it involves taking a bet on the direction of credit default swap rates and other interest rates, such as the interest rate of U.S. Treasuries or the London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR, which is the interest rate banks charge each other for loans).

究其原因,在信用違約交換的詳細解釋,可能你已經猜到了,就是他們經常使用固定收益套利。事實上,最流行的固定收益套利策略被稱為“互換價差套利(swap-spread arbitrage)。”雖然交換利差套利是一個非常複雜的主題而無法在這裡充分且完全的解釋,它包含下注在信用違約交換的利率上,以及其他利率,像是美國國債利率或者倫敦同業拆放利率(LIBOR,這是銀行間貸款利率)。

There are many other fixed-income arbitrage strategies, however. Another is called yield curve arbitrage. The yield curve is a graphical representation of how yields on bonds of different maturities compare. When the yield curve is flat, shorter- and longer-term yields are close. When the yield curve is heavily sloped, there is a greater gap between short- and long-term yields. Yield-curve arbitrageurs seek to profit from shifts in the yield curve by taking long and short positions in Treasuries of various maturities.

然而,還有許多其他的固定收益套利策略。另一種是所謂的收益曲線套利。收益率曲線是收益率在不同期限債券的比較用圖形化表示。當收益曲線是平的,短期和長期的收益率接近。當收益率曲線嚴重傾斜,有短期和長期收益率之間存在較大的差距。收益曲線套利尋求從收益率曲線的變化藉著各種期限的美國國債多頭和空頭頭寸獲利。

Another fixed-income arbitrage strategy is capital structure arbitrage, which seeks to profit from the pricing differentials between various claims on a company, such as its debt and stock. For example, a capital structure arbitrageur who believes a company’s debt is overpriced relative to its stock might short the company’s debt and buy the company’s stock.

另外固定收益套利策略是資本結構套利,它從公司不同的宣告或發言中找出價格的不同而獲利,比如它的債務和股票之間的價格差異中獲利。例如,資本結構套利相信一個公司的債務相對於它的股票被高估,可能可以放空公司債務和作多公司的股票。

Fixed-income arbitrageurs must be willing to accept significant risk. That’s because fixed-income arbitrage typically provides relatively small returns, but can potentially lead to huge losses. In fact, many people refer to fixed-income arbitrage as "picking up nickels in front of a steamroller."

固定收益套利者必須願意接受顯著風險。這是因為固定收益套利通常會提供比較小的回報,但也可能導致巨大的損失。事實上,很多人把固定收益套利看作“在壓路機前撿銅板。”

Because of the limited returns and huge risks involved, large institutional investors with significant assets—such as hedge funds, private equity firms and investment banks—are the major users of fixed-income arbitrage.

因為有限的回報及巨大的風險被大型的組織且有龐大資產的投資者使用,如對沖基金,私募基金及投資銀行。他們都是固定收入套利的主要用戶。

In summary, then, fixed-income arbitrage could be a good investment option, but it is best used by institutional investors who have significant assets and are willing to accept the risks.

綜上所述,然後,固定收益套利可能是一個很好的投資選擇,但最好是被具有龐大資產的機構投資者和接受這樣風險的人使用。

2014年9月5日 星期五

Hedge Fund Strategy - Convertible Arbitrage

原文在此

Convertible arbitrage is a type of equity long-short investing strategy often used by hedge funds.

An equity long-short strategy is an investing strategy which involves taking long positions in stocks that are expected to increase in value and short positions in stocks that are expected to decrease in value.

可轉換套利是股票多空策略的一種投資策略,經常被對沖基金使用。股票多空策略是一種投資策略,它包含取得股票的多頭部位並期望股票的價值增加,取得空頭部位,期望股票的價值減少。

Instead of purchasing and shorting stocks, however, convertible arbitrage takes a long position in, or purchases, convertible securities. It simultaneously takes a short position in, or sells, the same company’s common stock.

可轉換套利不需要做多及做空股票,可轉換套利取得一個多頭部位或採購可轉換股票。它同時取得一個空頭部位,或賣出相同公司的普通股票(common stock)。

To understand how that works, it is important to know what convertible securities are. A convertible security is a security that can be converted into another security at a pre-determined time and a pre-determined price. In most cases, the term applies to a bond that can be converted into a stock. Convertible bonds are considered neither bonds nor stocks, but hybrid securities with features of both. They may have a lower yield than other bonds, but this is usually balanced by the fact that they can be converted into stock at what is usually a discount to the stock’s market value. In fact, buying the convertible bond places the investor in a position to hold the bond as-is, or to convert it to stock if he or she anticipates that the stock’s price will rise.

要了解如何工作的,重要的是要知道什麼是可轉換證券。可轉換證券是一種安全,可以在預先確定的時間和預先確定的價格轉換成另一種安全。在大多數情況下,該術語適用於一個債券可以轉換成股票。可轉換債券被認為是既不債券也不是股票,而是同時具有以上兩個(債券及股票)特點的混合型證券。他們可能有一個比其他債券較低的收益率,而這通常是個平衡的事實,因為在轉換過城中香對於市場價格而有一些折扣。事實上,購買可轉債好像是購買債券一樣,否則也可轉換成股票,如果投資者預期股票價格將上升。

The idea behind convertible arbitrage is that a company’s convertible bonds are sometimes priced inefficiently relative to the company’s stock. Convertible arbitrage attempts to profit from this pricing error.

可轉換套利背後的想法是,公司的可轉換債券的定價有時是無效率相對於該公司的股票。可轉換套利試圖從這種定價錯誤中獲利。

To illustrate how convertible arbitrage works, a hedge fund using convertible arbitrage will buy a company’s convertible bonds at the same time as it shorts the company’s stock. If the company’s stock price falls, the hedge fund will benefit from its short position; it is also likely that the company’s convertible bonds will decline less than its stock, because they are protected by their value as fixed-income instruments. On the other hand, if the company’s stock price rises, the hedge fund can convert its convertible bonds into stock and sell that stock at market value, thereby benefiting from its long position, and ideally, compensating for any losses on its short position.

為了說明可轉換套利如何運作,對沖基金使用可轉換套利將可以購買一個公司的可轉換債券,在相同時間點上,它放空該公司的股票。如果公司股票下跌,對沖基金將從放空的部位獲利,因為他們具有固定收入的保護機制。換句話說,如果公司股票上漲,對沖基金將轉換他的可轉換公債變成股票,同時用市場價格賣出股票,因此,從多頭部位獲利,並且完美的補償從空頭部位而來的損失。

Convertible arbitrage is not without risks. First, it is trickier than it sounds. Because one generally must hold convertible bonds for a specified amount of time before they can be converted into stock, it is important for the convertible arbitrageur to evaluate the market carefully and determine in advance if market conditions will coincide with the time frame in which conversion is permitted.

可轉換套利並非沒有風險。首先,它比它被聽到的更為複雜。因為人們通常必須在指定的一段時間持有可轉換債券,才可以轉換成股票,投資者必須小心的評估市場以及更進一步的決定,如果市場條件符合預期。

Additionally, convertible arbitrageurs can fall victim to unpredictable events. One example is the market crash of 1987, when many convertible bonds declined more than the stocks into which they were convertible, for various reasons which are not totally understood even today. A more recent example occurred in 2005, when many arbitrageurs had long positions in General Motors (GM) convertible bonds and short positions in GM stock. They suffered losses when a billionaire investor tried to buy GM stock at the same time its debt was being downgraded by credit-ratings agencies.

此外,可轉換套利可能在不可預期的事件中受害。在1987年的一個崩盤的例子,當許多可轉債下跌超過到他們所兌換的,許多的原因到目前為止都很難理解。一個最近的例子發生在2005,許多套利者曾持有通用汽車公司的多頭部位(GM)可換股債券,他們蒙受損失,當億萬富翁投資者在同一時間試圖購買GM的股票,且GM的債務被信用評級機構降級的同時。

Finally, convertible arbitrage has become increasingly popular in recent years as investors have sought alternative investment options. That has reduced the effectiveness of the strategy.

最後,可轉債套利已成為越來越受歡迎,近年來隨著投資者紛紛尋求另類投資選擇。這降低了該策略的有效性。

In summary, convertible arbitrage, like other long-short strategies, may help increase returns in difficult market environments, but it isn’t without risks. As a result, investors considering a hedge fund that uses convertible arbitrage may want to carefully evaluate whether the potential return is balanced by the potential risks.

綜上所述,可轉換套利,像其他多空策略,可能有助於提高在困難的市場環境的回報,但它並非沒有風險。因此,投資者在考慮使用可轉債套利對沖基金需要仔細評估潛在回報和潛在風險是否平衡。


2014年9月3日 星期三

Understanding Event-Driven Investing

原文來自於 這裡

Event-driven investing is an investing strategy that seeks to exploit pricing inefficiencies that may occur before or after a corporate event, such as a bankruptcy, merger, acquisition or spinoff.

事件驅動型投資是一種投資策略,利用定價效率低下的情形底下,可能導致企業事件之前或之後產生像是破產,兼併,收購或分割。

To illustrate, consider what happens in the case of a potential acquisition. When a company signals its intent to buy another company, the stock price of the company to be acquired typically rises. However, it usually remains somewhere below the acquisition price—a discount that reflects the market’s uncertainty about whether the acquisition will truly occur.

為了說明這一點,考慮潛在收購的情況下會發生什麼。當一家公司出現信號,它打算收購另一家公司,被收購的股票價格,公司通常會上升。然而,它通常保留某處低於收購價,一個折扣用來反應市場的不確定性,這不確定性代表著收購是否真的會發生?

That’s when event-driven investors enter the picture. An event-driven investor will analyze the potential acquisition—looking at the reason for the acquisition, the terms of the acquisition and any regulatory issues (such as antitrust laws)—and determine the likelihood of the acquisition actually occurring. If it seems likely that the deal will close, the event-driven investor will purchase the stock of the company to be acquired, and sell it after the acquisition, when its price has risen to the acquisition price (or greater).

這時候,事件驅動的投資者進入狀況。事件驅動的投資者將分析潛在的收購,看收購的原因,收購的條款及任何監管問題(如反托拉斯法) - 和決定收購實際發生的可能性。如果這個交易看起來可以成交,事件驅動的投資者購買被收購公司的股票,並且在收購之後賣掉它,當它的價格已經上升到了收購的價格(或更高的價格)。

Event-driven investing strategies are typically used only by large institutional investors, such as hedge funds and private equity firms. That’s because traditional equity investors, including managers of equity mutual funds, do not have the expertise necessary to analyze many corporate events. But that’s exactly how event-driven investors make money.

事件驅動型投資策略,一般只有大型機構投資者,如對沖基金和私人股本公司使用。這是因為傳統的股權投資,包括股票共同基金經理人,不具備必要的專業知識來分析許多企業活動。但是,這正是事件驅動的投資者如何賺錢。

To illustrate, let’s go back to our example of a potential acquisition and consider how a traditional fund manager looks at the situation. Let’s say the manager holds the stock of the company that is to be acquired. When the planned acquisition is announced, the stock rallies (partly as a result of event-driven investors buying it). The traditional manager doesn’t have the expertise to determine if the deal will go through, so he or she will often sell the stock before the acquisition occurs, realizing a solid profit and sacrificing the remaining upside (that is, any additional profit that he or she would have realized by holding the stock until after the acquisition). That additional upside is locked in by the event-driven investor.

為了說明這一點,讓我們回到我們的潛在收購的例子,並考慮如何將傳統的基金經理看的情況。比方說,管理者持有的公司將被收購的股票。當收購計劃公佈後,股價反彈大漲(部分原因是事件驅動的投資者購買它的結果)。傳統的管理者不具備專業知識,以確定該交易將通過,所以他或她往往會賣出股票的收購發生前,實現了具體的獲利並犧牲後面的上漲(也就是說,任何額外的利潤,他或者她會持有股票,直到收購完成後才實現獲利)。這額外的上漲就是由事件驅動的投資者鎖定。

Event-driven investing is often used by investors who also use distressed-investing strategies. As explained in Investing in Distressed Securities, distressed securities are securities—most often corporate bonds, bank debt and trade claims—of companies that are in some sort of distress, such as bankruptcy. That’s because event-driven and distressed investing strategies may be complementary. Event-driven investing tends to work best when the economy is performing well (because this is when corporate activity is highest). Distressed investing, on the other hand, tends to work best when the economy is performing poorly (because this is when companies tend to become distressed).

事件投資經常被投資者使用在問題投資策略上。作為投資問題證券上的說明,問題證券經常是企業債、銀行貸款及商業索賠. 這些公司都在某種困境中,像是破產。
這是因為事件驅動和問題投資這兩者的策略上可能是互補的。事件驅動的投資往往最當經濟表現良好(因為這是當企業的活動是最高的)。問題投資,另一方面,往往最當經濟表現不佳(因為這是企業越來越有問題)。

While event-driven investing can be profitable, event-driven investors must be willing to accept some risk. Many corporate events do not occur as planned. This can ultimately reduce the price of a company’s stock and cause an event-driven investor to lose money. As a result, event-driven investors must have the knowledge and skill to accurately assess whether a corporate event will actually occur.

而事件驅動投資可以盈利的,事件驅動的投資者必須願意接受一定的風險。許多企業的事件不會發生按計劃進行。這最終會降低公司股票的價格,並導致一個事件驅動的投資人賠錢。其結果是,事件驅動的投資者必須具備的知識和技能,以準確地評估是否真的會發生企業事件。

In summary, then, while a company subject to a complex event may not sound like a great investment opportunity, it could be—for sophisticated investors who have the expertise to evaluate the event and are willing to accept increased risk.

綜上所述,然後,當一家公司受到複雜的事件,這看起來不會是一個巨大的投資機會,對有經驗的投資者來說,他有專業知識去評估事件及願意接受增加的風險。

投資的效益:利潤風險比 MAR

投資的模型有好有壞。 當投資一段時間後,譬如 五年六年後, 投資模型經過實證, 知道了投資模型的年化報酬率,也知道了投資模型的最大風險 這時,我們可以來計算投資的利潤風險比。 利潤風險比主要談的是 每承受一單位風險,可以換回多少利潤 利潤風險比較做 MAR  (returns a...