Understanding Fixed-Income Arbitrage

原文在此

Fixed-income arbitrage is an investment strategy that exploits pricing differentials between fixed-income securities.

固定收益套利是利用固定收益證券之間的價格差異投資策略。

Before we explain that, let’s review the concept of arbitrage. Arbitrage, at its most simplest, involves buying securities on one market for immediate resale on another market in order to profit from a price discrepancy. But in the hedge fund world, arbitrage more commonly refers to the simultaneous purchase and sale of two similar securities whose prices, in the opinion of the trader, are not in sync with what the trader believes to be their “true value.” Acting on the assumption that prices will revert to true value over time, the trader will sell short the overpriced security and buy the underpriced security. Once prices revert to true value, the trade can be liquidated at a profit. (Remember, short selling is simply borrowing a security you don’t own, selling it, then hoping it declines in value, at which time you can buy it back at a lower price than you paid for it and return the borrowed securities.) Arbitrage can also be used to buy and sell two stocks, two commodities and many other securities.

在我們解釋前，讓我們回顧一下套利的概念。套利，最簡單的，包括在一個市場上購買有價證券，在另一個市場上立即做空，為了從價格的矛盾中獲利。但在對沖基金的世界裡，套利更常見的是指同時買入和賣出兩個類似的證券，其真實的價格在交易者的眼中是不同步的。在這個假設得前提下行動，價格隨著時間過去，最終會回到真實價值的價格，因此交易者可以作多低估的股票，做空高估的股票。一旦價格回歸真實的價值，投資者將能在獲利下出清持股。(做空是簡單的借一張你不曾擁有的股票，然後賣掉它，並且期望它的價格下跌，然後將它用比較低的價格買回來，並且還回去 ) ，套利也可以被使用來買及賣兩隻股票、兩個商品及許多其他類型的股票。

Although many investors are unfamiliar with the term “fixed-income arbitrage” most have heard of one of its major users: Long Term Capital Management, a hedge fund that in the 1990s realized average annual returns of greater than 40%, then had to be bailed out by several Wall Street firms at the encouragement of the U.S. Federal Reserve Board.

雖然很多投資者不熟悉的術語“固定收益套利”大部分都聽過它的主要用戶之一：長期資本管理公司，在20世紀90年代實現了超過40％的年均回報率對沖基金，現在在美國聯邦儲備委員會的鼓勵下，透過幾個華爾街的大型機構保釋在外。

To understand fixed-income arbitrage, it is important to have some familiarity with fixed-income securities. At their most basic level, fixed-income securities are simply debt instruments, issued by private companies or public entities, which promise a fixed stream of income. U.S. Treasuries, corporate bonds and municipal bonds bonds are examples. There are, however, more sophisticated fixed-income securities, such as credit default swaps.

為了了解固定收益套利，對固定收益證券有一定的了解是很重要的。在他們最基本的層面上，固定收益證券是簡單的債務工具，由私人公司或公共實體，保證收益的固定流，美國國庫債券，公司債券和市政債券的債券就是例子。但是，更複雜的固定收益證券，如信貸違約交換。

Credit default swaps are complex financial instruments similar to insurance contracts in that they provide the buyer with protection against specific risks. So, for example, say you buy a corporate bond from Company ABC. You think the company will pay you back with interest, but it might default, and you invested a lot of money, so you want some added protection. So, you call your insurance company and ask it to sell you insurance against the possible default of Company ABC’s bonds. Your insurance company charges you a fee for that insurance, just as it would if you were buying car insurance or homeowner’s insurance. But here’s the catch: When it comes to credit default swaps, you don’t have to actually own the asset in order to insure it. Your insurance company is selling insurance on Company ABC’s stock to anyone. In other words, it’s selling pieces of paper—securities that fall into the “derivatives” category—called credit default swaps. And these pieces of paper are traded over-the-counter by sophisticated investors.

信用違約交換是複雜的金融工具類似保險合約，因為它們提供買方保護，防止特定風險。因此，舉例來說，假設你購買從ABC公司公司債券。你認為公司會還給你有興趣，但也可能違約，以及你投入了很多錢，所以你需要一些額外的保護。所以，你打電話給你的保險公司，並要求它賣給你投保的公司ABC的債券可能違約。您的保險公司會向您收取一定的費用保險，就像它，如果你買了汽車保險或房屋保險。但這裡的陷阱：當涉及到信用違約掉期，你不必實際擁有的資產，以確保它。您的保險公司對ABC公司的股票賣保險給任何人。換句話說，它是賣紙的證券碎片落入了“衍生產品”的範疇，稱為信用違約掉期。而這些紙片被交易過的非處方由經驗豐富的投資者。

The reason for that detailed explanation of credit default swaps, as you might have guessed, is that they are often used in fixed-income arbitrage. In fact, one of the most popular fixed-income arbitrage strategies is called “swap-spread arbitrage.” While swap-spread arbitrage is too complex a topic to explain in full here, it involves taking a bet on the direction of credit default swap rates and other interest rates, such as the interest rate of U.S. Treasuries or the London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR, which is the interest rate banks charge each other for loans).

究其原因，在信用違約交換的詳細解釋，可能你已經猜到了，就是他們經常使用固定收益套利。事實上，最流行的固定收益套利策略被稱為“互換價差套利(swap-spread arbitrage)。”雖然交換利差套利是一個非常複雜的主題而無法在這裡充分且完全的解釋，它包含下注在信用違約交換的利率上，以及其他利率，像是美國國債利率或者倫敦同業拆放利率（LIBOR，這是銀行間貸款利率）。

There are many other fixed-income arbitrage strategies, however. Another is called yield curve arbitrage. The yield curve is a graphical representation of how yields on bonds of different maturities compare. When the yield curve is flat, shorter- and longer-term yields are close. When the yield curve is heavily sloped, there is a greater gap between short- and long-term yields. Yield-curve arbitrageurs seek to profit from shifts in the yield curve by taking long and short positions in Treasuries of various maturities.

然而，還有許多其他的固定收益套利策略。另一種是所謂的收益曲線套利。收益率曲線是收益率在不同期限債券的比較用圖形化表示。當收益曲線是平的，短期和長期的收益率接近。當收益率曲線嚴重傾斜，有短期和長期收益率之間存在較大的差距。收益曲線套利尋求從收益率曲線的變化藉著各種期限的美國國債多頭和空頭頭寸獲利。

Another fixed-income arbitrage strategy is capital structure arbitrage, which seeks to profit from the pricing differentials between various claims on a company, such as its debt and stock. For example, a capital structure arbitrageur who believes a company’s debt is overpriced relative to its stock might short the company’s debt and buy the company’s stock.

另外固定收益套利策略是資本結構套利，它從公司不同的宣告或發言中找出價格的不同而獲利，比如它的債務和股票之間的價格差異中獲利。例如，資本結構套利相信一個公司的債務相對於它的股票被高估，可能可以放空公司債務和作多公司的股票。

Fixed-income arbitrageurs must be willing to accept significant risk. That’s because fixed-income arbitrage typically provides relatively small returns, but can potentially lead to huge losses. In fact, many people refer to fixed-income arbitrage as "picking up nickels in front of a steamroller."

固定收益套利者必須願意接受顯著風險。這是因為固定收益套利通常會提供比較小的回報，但也可能導致巨大的損失。事實上，很多人把固定收益套利看作“在壓路機前撿銅板。”

Because of the limited returns and huge risks involved, large institutional investors with significant assets—such as hedge funds, private equity firms and investment banks—are the major users of fixed-income arbitrage.

因為有限的回報及巨大的風險被大型的組織且有龐大資產的投資者使用，如對沖基金，私募基金及投資銀行。他們都是固定收入套利的主要用戶。

In summary, then, fixed-income arbitrage could be a good investment option, but it is best used by institutional investors who have significant assets and are willing to accept the risks.

綜上所述，然後，固定收益套利可能是一個很好的投資選擇，但最好是被具有龐大資產的機構投資者和接受這樣風險的人使用。

Hedge Fund Strategy - Convertible Arbitrage

原文在此

Convertible arbitrage is a type of equity long-short investing strategy often used by hedge funds.

An equity long-short strategy is an investing strategy which involves taking long positions in stocks that are expected to increase in value and short positions in stocks that are expected to decrease in value.

可轉換套利是股票多空策略的一種投資策略，經常被對沖基金使用。股票多空策略是一種投資策略，它包含取得股票的多頭部位並期望股票的價值增加，取得空頭部位，期望股票的價值減少。

Instead of purchasing and shorting stocks, however, convertible arbitrage takes a long position in, or purchases, convertible securities. It simultaneously takes a short position in, or sells, the same company’s common stock.

可轉換套利不需要做多及做空股票，可轉換套利取得一個多頭部位或採購可轉換股票。它同時取得一個空頭部位，或賣出相同公司的普通股票(common stock)。

To understand how that works, it is important to know what convertible securities are. A convertible security is a security that can be converted into another security at a pre-determined time and a pre-determined price. In most cases, the term applies to a bond that can be converted into a stock. Convertible bonds are considered neither bonds nor stocks, but hybrid securities with features of both. They may have a lower yield than other bonds, but this is usually balanced by the fact that they can be converted into stock at what is usually a discount to the stock’s market value. In fact, buying the convertible bond places the investor in a position to hold the bond as-is, or to convert it to stock if he or she anticipates that the stock’s price will rise.

要了解如何工作的，重要的是要知道什麼是可轉換證券。可轉換證券是一種安全，可以在預先確定的時間和預先確定的價格轉換成另一種安全。在大多數情況下，該術語適用於一個債券可以轉換成股票。可轉換債券被認為是既不債券也不是股票，而是同時具有以上兩個(債券及股票)特點的混合型證券。他們可能有一個比其他債券較低的收益率，而這通常是個平衡的事實，因為在轉換過城中香對於市場價格而有一些折扣。事實上，購買可轉債好像是購買債券一樣，否則也可轉換成股票，如果投資者預期股票價格將上升。

The idea behind convertible arbitrage is that a company’s convertible bonds are sometimes priced inefficiently relative to the company’s stock. Convertible arbitrage attempts to profit from this pricing error.

可轉換套利背後的想法是，公司的可轉換債券的定價有時是無效率相對於該公司的股票。可轉換套利試圖從這種定價錯誤中獲利。

To illustrate how convertible arbitrage works, a hedge fund using convertible arbitrage will buy a company’s convertible bonds at the same time as it shorts the company’s stock. If the company’s stock price falls, the hedge fund will benefit from its short position; it is also likely that the company’s convertible bonds will decline less than its stock, because they are protected by their value as fixed-income instruments. On the other hand, if the company’s stock price rises, the hedge fund can convert its convertible bonds into stock and sell that stock at market value, thereby benefiting from its long position, and ideally, compensating for any losses on its short position.

為了說明可轉換套利如何運作，對沖基金使用可轉換套利將可以購買一個公司的可轉換債券，在相同時間點上，它放空該公司的股票。如果公司股票下跌，對沖基金將從放空的部位獲利，因為他們具有固定收入的保護機制。換句話說，如果公司股票上漲，對沖基金將轉換他的可轉換公債變成股票，同時用市場價格賣出股票，因此，從多頭部位獲利，並且完美的補償從空頭部位而來的損失。

Convertible arbitrage is not without risks. First, it is trickier than it sounds. Because one generally must hold convertible bonds for a specified amount of time before they can be converted into stock, it is important for the convertible arbitrageur to evaluate the market carefully and determine in advance if market conditions will coincide with the time frame in which conversion is permitted.

可轉換套利並非沒有風險。首先，它比它被聽到的更為複雜。因為人們通常必須在指定的一段時間持有可轉換債券，才可以轉換成股票，投資者必須小心的評估市場以及更進一步的決定，如果市場條件符合預期。

Additionally, convertible arbitrageurs can fall victim to unpredictable events. One example is the market crash of 1987, when many convertible bonds declined more than the stocks into which they were convertible, for various reasons which are not totally understood even today. A more recent example occurred in 2005, when many arbitrageurs had long positions in General Motors (GM) convertible bonds and short positions in GM stock. They suffered losses when a billionaire investor tried to buy GM stock at the same time its debt was being downgraded by credit-ratings agencies.

此外，可轉換套利可能在不可預期的事件中受害。在1987年的一個崩盤的例子，當許多可轉債下跌超過到他們所兌換的，許多的原因到目前為止都很難理解。一個最近的例子發生在2005，許多套利者曾持有通用汽車公司的多頭部位（GM）可換股債券，他們蒙受損失，當億萬富翁投資者在同一時間試圖購買GM的股票，且GM的債務被信用評級機構降級的同時。

Finally, convertible arbitrage has become increasingly popular in recent years as investors have sought alternative investment options. That has reduced the effectiveness of the strategy.

最後，可轉債套利已成為越來越受歡迎，近年來隨著投資者紛紛尋求另類投資選擇。這降低了該策略的有效性。

In summary, convertible arbitrage, like other long-short strategies, may help increase returns in difficult market environments, but it isn’t without risks. As a result, investors considering a hedge fund that uses convertible arbitrage may want to carefully evaluate whether the potential return is balanced by the potential risks.

綜上所述，可轉換套利，像其他多空策略，可能有助於提高在困難的市場環境的回報，但它並非沒有風險。因此，投資者在考慮使用可轉債套利對沖基金需要仔細評估潛在回報和潛在風險是否平衡。

Understanding Event-Driven Investing

原文來自於 這裡

Event-driven investing is an investing strategy that seeks to exploit pricing inefficiencies that may occur before or after a corporate event, such as a bankruptcy, merger, acquisition or spinoff.

事件驅動型投資是一種投資策略，利用定價效率低下的情形底下，可能導致企業事件之前或之後產生像是破產，兼併，收購或分割。

To illustrate, consider what happens in the case of a potential acquisition. When a company signals its intent to buy another company, the stock price of the company to be acquired typically rises. However, it usually remains somewhere below the acquisition price—a discount that reflects the market’s uncertainty about whether the acquisition will truly occur.

為了說明這一點，考慮潛在收購的情況下會發生什麼。當一家公司出現信號，它打算收購另一家公司，被收購的股票價格，公司通常會上升。然而，它通常保留某處低於收購價，一個折扣用來反應市場的不確定性，這不確定性代表著收購是否真的會發生？

That’s when event-driven investors enter the picture. An event-driven investor will analyze the potential acquisition—looking at the reason for the acquisition, the terms of the acquisition and any regulatory issues (such as antitrust laws)—and determine the likelihood of the acquisition actually occurring. If it seems likely that the deal will close, the event-driven investor will purchase the stock of the company to be acquired, and sell it after the acquisition, when its price has risen to the acquisition price (or greater).

這時候，事件驅動的投資者進入狀況。事件驅動的投資者將分析潛在的收購，看收購的原因，收購的條款及任何監管問題（如反托拉斯法） - 和決定收購實際發生的可能性。如果這個交易看起來可以成交，事件驅動的投資者購買被收購公司的股票，並且在收購之後賣掉它，當它的價格已經上升到了收購的價格（或更高的價格）。

Event-driven investing strategies are typically used only by large institutional investors, such as hedge funds and private equity firms. That’s because traditional equity investors, including managers of equity mutual funds, do not have the expertise necessary to analyze many corporate events. But that’s exactly how event-driven investors make money.

事件驅動型投資策略，一般只有大型機構投資者，如對沖基金和私人股本公司使用。這是因為傳統的股權投資，包括股票共同基金經理人，不具備必要的專業知識來分析許多企業活動。但是，這正是事件驅動的投資者如何賺錢。

To illustrate, let’s go back to our example of a potential acquisition and consider how a traditional fund manager looks at the situation. Let’s say the manager holds the stock of the company that is to be acquired. When the planned acquisition is announced, the stock rallies (partly as a result of event-driven investors buying it). The traditional manager doesn’t have the expertise to determine if the deal will go through, so he or she will often sell the stock before the acquisition occurs, realizing a solid profit and sacrificing the remaining upside (that is, any additional profit that he or she would have realized by holding the stock until after the acquisition). That additional upside is locked in by the event-driven investor.

為了說明這一點，讓我們回到我們的潛在收購的例子，並考慮如何將傳統的基金經理看的情況。比方說，管理者持有的公司將被收購的股票。當收購計劃公佈後，股價反彈大漲（部分原因是事件驅動的投資者購買它的結果）。傳統的管理者不具備專業知識，以確定該交易將通過，所以他或她往往會賣出股票的收購發生前，實現了具體的獲利並犧牲後面的上漲（也就是說，任何額外的利潤，他或者她會持有股票，直到收購完成後才實現獲利）。這額外的上漲就是由事件驅動的投資者鎖定。

Event-driven investing is often used by investors who also use distressed-investing strategies. As explained in Investing in Distressed Securities, distressed securities are securities—most often corporate bonds, bank debt and trade claims—of companies that are in some sort of distress, such as bankruptcy. That’s because event-driven and distressed investing strategies may be complementary. Event-driven investing tends to work best when the economy is performing well (because this is when corporate activity is highest). Distressed investing, on the other hand, tends to work best when the economy is performing poorly (because this is when companies tend to become distressed).

事件投資經常被投資者使用在問題投資策略上。作為投資問題證券上的說明，問題證券經常是企業債、銀行貸款及商業索賠. 這些公司都在某種困境中，像是破產。
這是因為事件驅動和問題投資這兩者的策略上可能是互補的。事件驅動的投資往往最當經濟表現良好（因為這是當企業的活動是最高的）。問題投資，另一方面，往往最當經濟表現不佳（因為這是企業越來越有問題）。

While event-driven investing can be profitable, event-driven investors must be willing to accept some risk. Many corporate events do not occur as planned. This can ultimately reduce the price of a company’s stock and cause an event-driven investor to lose money. As a result, event-driven investors must have the knowledge and skill to accurately assess whether a corporate event will actually occur.

而事件驅動投資可以盈利的，事件驅動的投資者必須願意接受一定的風險。許多企業的事件不會發生按計劃進行。這最終會降低公司股票的價格，並導致一個事件驅動的投資人賠錢。其結果是，事件驅動的投資者必須具備的知識和技能，以準確地評估是否真的會發生企業事件。

In summary, then, while a company subject to a complex event may not sound like a great investment opportunity, it could be—for sophisticated investors who have the expertise to evaluate the event and are willing to accept increased risk.

綜上所述，然後，當一家公司受到複雜的事件，這看起來不會是一個巨大的投資機會，對有經驗的投資者來說，他有專業知識去評估事件及願意接受增加的風險。

Hege Fund Strategy - Equity Long-Short

原文來自這裡，翻譯錯誤請見諒

An equity long-short strategy is an investing strategy, used primarily by hedge funds, that involves taking long positions in stocks that are expected to increase in value and short positions in stocks that are expected to decrease in value.

股票多空策略是被對沖基金主要使用的一種投資策略，這包括使用多頭部位來期望增加持有股票的價值，以及使用空頭部位來降低持有股票的價值。

You may know that taking a long position in a stock simply means buying it: If the stock increases in value, you will make money. On the other hand, taking a short position in a stock means borrowing a stock you don’t own (usually from your broker), selling it, then hoping it declines in value, at which time you can buy it back at a lower price than you paid for it and return the borrowed shares.

你可能知道，持有多頭部位意謂著買進股票。如果股票的價值上漲，你將會轉錢。換句話說，持有空頭股票，意味著借一張你不擁有的股票，賣出它，然後期望股票的價格下跌，此時您可以用比你買入更低的價格買回來，然後將借的股票還回去，留下最後的獲利。

Hedge funds using equity long-short strategies simply do this on a grander scale. At its most basic level, an equity long-short strategy consists of buying an undervalued stock and shorting an overvalued stock. Ideally, the long position will increase in value, and the short position will decline in value. If this happens, and the positions are of equal size, the hedge fund will benefit. That said, the strategy will work even if the long position declines in value, provided that the long position outperforms the short position. Thus, the goal of any equity long-short strategy is to minimize exposure to the market in general, and profit from a change in the difference, or spread, between two stocks.

對沖基金採用股票多空策略在巨大的規模下達成這一點。在最基礎的層面上，股票多空策略包括買入被低估的股票和賣空高估的股票。理想情況下，多頭部位的價值會增加，而空頭部位的價值會下降。如果發生這種情況，而多空部位的大小是相等的，對沖基金將從中獲利。這就是說，這個策略仍然有效，即使多頭部位面臨下跌，但只要多頭部位的獲利大於空頭部位的獲利。也就是說，股票多空策略的目標是最小化暴露在市場上的風險，獲利則是來自於兩檔股票間出現不同的變動或擴張(價差交易)中。

That may sound complicated, so let’s look at a hypothetical example. Let’s say a hedge fund takes a $1 million long position in Pfizer and a $1 million short position in Wyeth, both large pharmaceutical companies. With these positions, any event that causes all pharmaceutical stocks to fall will lead to a loss on the Pfizer position and a profit on the Wyeth position. Similarly, an event that causes both stocks to rise will have little effect, since the positions balance each other out. So, the market risk is minimal. Why, then, would a portfolio manager take such a position? Because he or she thinks Pfizer will perform better than Wyeth.

這可能聽起來很複雜，所以讓我們來看看一個假設的例子。比方說，對沖基金在輝瑞大藥廠取得一個100萬美元的多頭部位，以及一百萬美元在惠氏藥廠的空頭部位，同時持有兩個大製藥公司。類似的，同樣，一個事件，導致兩隻股票同時上漲，就沒有什麼效益，因為這些位置相互平衡的。所以，市場風險是極小的。那麼，為什麼會投資組合經理採取這樣的立場呢？因為他或她認為輝瑞將超過惠氏更好的表現。

Equity long-short strategies such as the one described, which hold equal dollar amounts of long and short positions, are called market neutral strategies. But not all equity long-short strategies are market neutral. Some hedge fund managers will maintain a long bias, as is the case with so-called “130/30” strategies. With these strategies, hedge funds have 130% exposure to long positions and 30% exposure to short positions. Other structures are also used, such as 120% long and 20% short. (Few hedge funds have a long-term short bias, since the equity markets tend to move up over time.)

股票多空策略，如所描述的，持有多頭和空頭部位相等的金額，都堪稱市場中性策略。但並不是所有的股票多空策略是市場中性的。有些對沖基金經理會保持很長的偏見，就像一種策略叫做 130/30 策略。使用這個策略的對沖基金有130% 在多頭曝險，30% 在空頭曝險。類似其他的結構也被使用，像是 120% 多頭和 20% 的空頭。（很少有對沖基金有一個長期的看空，因為股市往往會隨著時間的推移向上移動。）

Equity long-short managers can also be distinguished by the geographic market in which they invest, the sector in which they invest (financial, health care or technology, for example) or their investment style (value or quantitative, for example). Buying and selling two related stocks—for example, two stocks in the same region or industry—is called a “paired trade” model. It may limit risk to a specific subset of the market instead of the market in general.

股票多空管理者也可以通過所投資的地域市場區分，所投資（金融，醫療保健或技術，例如）的部門或自己的投資風格 (價值投資或量化投資)。買入和賣出兩種相關的股票，例如，兩隻股票在同一地區或同一行業被稱為“配對交易”的模型。這樣得投資，可以限定它的風險

，利用特定市場來取代一般市場的風險。

Equity long-short strategies have been used by sophisticated investors, such as institutions, for years. They became increasingly popular among individual investors as traditional strategies struggled in the most recent bear market, highlighting the need for investors to consider expanding their portfolios into innovative financial solutions.

股票多空策略已經被成熟的投資者使用許多年，如機構。他們成為個人投資者中越來越受歡迎，因為傳統的策略在最近幾年的熊市中掙扎，強調需要為投資者考慮擴大其投資組合為創新的金融解決方案。

Equity long-short strategies are not without risks. These strategies have all the generic hedge fund risks: For example, hedge funds are typically not as liquid as mutual funds, meaning it is more difficult to sell shares; the strategies they use could lead to significant losses; and they can have high fees. Additionally, equity long-short strategies have some unique risks. The main one is that the portfolio manager must correctly predict the relative performance of two stocks, which can be difficult. Another risk results from what is referred to in the industry as “beta mismatch.” While this is more complicated that we can explain in detail here, essentially, it means that when the stock market declines sharply, long positions could lose more than short positions.

股票多空策略並非沒有風險。這些策略都通用的對沖基金的風險：例如，對沖基金通常不像共同基金一樣的流動性，這意謂著很困難去賣出股票，這策略可能引發嚴重的損失以及他們有高額的費用。此外，股票多空策略，有一些獨特的風險。最主要的是，投資組合經理必須正確預測的兩隻股票，這是很困難的。從什麼是指在被業界稱為“beta mismatch。”雖然這是比較複雜的，我們可以詳細介紹一下這另一種風險的結果，本質上，這意味著 當股市大幅下降，多頭可能會損失超過空頭頭寸。

In summary, equity long-short strategies may help increase returns in difficult market environments, but also involve some risk. As a result, investors considering these strategies may want to ensure that their hedge funds follow strict rules to evaluate market risks and find good investment opportunities.

綜上所述，股票多空策略可能有助於提高在艱難的市場環境下的回報，同時也涉及一些風險。因此，投資者在考慮這些策略，可能希望確保他們的對沖基金遵循嚴格的規則，以評估市場風險，並尋找良好的投資機會。

創業小故事 (3) - 從群眾中取得資金

This is a special case of “sell it before you build it”. The basic idea is simple: launch a crowdfunding campaign on platforms such as Kickstarter, IndieGoGo and RocketHub. Not only will you validate if customers want to buy your product, but you will also raise money.

有一個特別的案例，「在有產品之前先賣」。這基礎的概念是簡單的。取得群眾資金從平台 KickStarter, IndieGoGo 以及 RocketHub. 這不僅確認客戶要不要買你的產品，而是你能否募得資金。

And the benefits do not stop there. What you win in a successful crowdfunding campaign is a tribe of early adopters and raving fans. In this ReadWriteWeb article, Scott Steinberg advises to “embrace them and stay in constant contact. Not only are they likely to help you spread the word, but many times they’ll also offer to contribute to your business in other ways”.

然而，好處不僅止於這樣。你用什麼贏得群眾資金在早期的使用者與胡言亂語的粉絲所集中的一個部落。Scott Steinberg 建議擁抱他們同時保持緊密的聯繫。不僅只是他們可以幫助你散播關鍵字，而是他們將透過不同的方式對你的商業提供貢獻。

Of course, crowdfunding will not work for just any type of product. Most products seem to have a strong consumer focus, and a value that is easy to communicate. Just have a look at the Kickstarter’s 10 Biggest Success Stories.

當然，群眾資金將不僅是為了任一型態的產品工作。大部分的產品看起來像是強力聚焦在消費者上，有一個價值很簡單去溝通。可以看看 Kickstarter's 10 個最大的成功故事。

創業小故事 (2) - 門房 MVP

Concierge MVP(門房 MVP)

Instead of providing a product, you start with a manual service. But not just any service! The service should consist of exactly the same steps people would go through with your product.

不僅是提供產品，你開始提供一個手動的服務。然而不僅是服務，這服務應包含一個相同的步驟，人們可以和你的產品通過這個步驟。

Food on the table provides easy weekly recipe and grocery lists based on sales at your store. They need lots of stuff to make this work. A list of stores and groceries, weekly updates on sales, recipes, algorithms to match your preference to recipes to promotions…

Food on the table 提供一個簡單的每週收據和物品清單根據銷售給你的商店，他們需要很多的東西才能完成這個工作。商店及雜貨列表，每週根據銷售、食譜、演算法每週更新來吻合你的喜愛到收據到促銷。

It’s a lot. 這很多工作。

But the founders did not start by building all these assets. Again, from Riese’s book, we learn what happened.

但是創業者一開始並不建構所有的資產。再一次，從 Riese's 書中，我們學到發生了什麼事？

Before building anything, the two founders went to their local shop in Austin. They interviewed shoppers until they found one that was interested in their service.

在建構任何事之前，這兩個創業者跑道他們在 Austin 的地區型商店。他們採訪採購者直到找到一個對他們的服務感興趣的。

She got a concierge treatment. 她得到一個門房的待遇。

The CEO visited her every week. He came with a shopping list and selected recipes, carefully chosen based on (a) her preferences and (b) promotions in the local store. The list was updated on the spot based on her desires and feedback. Most importantly, the CEO would pick a check of $9.95 for this service.

這個老闆每週拜訪她。他帶著一串採購清單以及挑選過得食譜，小心的選擇建構在他的喜好及地區型商店的促銷。這清單基於顧客的喜好及回饋即時更新。更重要的，這 CEO 從這服務中收費 9.95 美金。

This was no way to get rich.

這是不可能致富的。

But each week, they would learn more about what it takes to make their product a success. They kept adding more customers to their weekly visits, until they couldn’t handle the load any more.

但每週，他們將學習到更多有關什麼促使他們的產品成功。他們保持每週增加拜訪更多的客戶，直到他們不能處理這些負擔。

Only then they started coding.

只有這樣他們才開始寫程式。

One week they start sending lists and recipes via e-mail. A next one they wrote a piece of software to parse promotional store lists. Eventually, they started taking payments online.

某週他們開始透過 e-mail 傳送清單及食譜。下一個他們寫一堆程式去解析促銷的商店清單。最後，他們開始線上收費。

Only after validating the basic product with customers of their initial store, they started adding stores, first in their region, to eventually grow into a nationwide business.

只有經過確認基本的產品和他們的初始商店的客戶，他們開始增加商店，首先在他們的區域，最後成長成為一個國際級商店。

創業小故事 (1) - 潘朵拉 MVP

 Zappos shoes 是最大的線上鞋子零售商，每年的銷售額超過 1 百萬美元，在期初的創業者開始一個潘朵拉似的產品，創業者並沒有大量的產品庫存也沒有投資在 e-emmerce 的後端系統。相反地，他去傳統的地區行鞋店。他請求這些鞋店老闆們的同意對這些鞋子照相並將他們放到網路上。一旦有訂單產生，他就去鞋店買下來，並將這些鞋子寄出去，靠自己手動處理所有商業的工作。

 心得：創業不見得要靠自己，臉皮厚一點，借力使力也是不錯得方法。

Assumption and Hypothesis 的不同

Assumption and Hypothesis

An assumption is a belief that forms one of the bases for the research. This belief is not to be tested or supported with empirical data. Very often belief is not stated in a research proposal.

假設是一個研究基礎的一個信念，這個信念不被測試或實驗資料所支持。很多時候這個信念不會出現在研究的提案中。

A hypothesis is a tentative answer to a research question.

假設是試探性的回答研究問題

Where can a hypothesis be derived from?

假設可能衍生自哪裡？

a. from the observation before the research is conducted. This is called inductive hypothesis

a. 從研究進行之前的觀察，這被稱為「歸納假說」( inductive hypothesis)。

b. from the theory. This is called deductive hypothesis.

b. 從理論而來，這被稱為演繹假說(deductive hypothesis)

It does not matter how you derive it, but it must: (a)  state relationship between variables, (b) be testable–remember the operational definition, (c) be consistent with the existing theory/knowledge, and (d) be simple and concise.

There are two types of hypothesis: research hypothesis and null hypothesis.

有兩種假說, 研究假說及虛無假說。

Research hypothesis. A research hypothesis is usually developed from experience, literature or theory, or combination of these. This is the expected relationship between variables.

研究假說經常從經驗、文獻、理論或這些得組合來發展。這是變數之間的預期關係。

Example:

Pak Sigit wants to research the relation between debating activities and argumentative writing skills. First of all, Pak Sigit believes (assumes) that in debating activities, students use their logical capacity to build an argument to support the topic of the debate. Similarly, in writing argumentative writing, students also need logical capacity to build arguments to support the topic of their writings. In short, Pak Sigit’s assumption is the skills obtained in debating capacities can be transfered into writing ability.

After reading and observing the phenomenon, he develops a research hypothesis, “there is a positive correlation between students’ debating activities and argumentative writing skills.” This kind of hypothesis is called directional hypothesis.

Another type of hypothesis is non-directional hypothesis. Example: there is a correlation between students’ debating activities and writing skills.

Null hypothesis. A null hypothesis is the one that states NO relationship between varibales. The function is to let the research test the hypothesis statistically.

Please make the null hypothesis of the above research hypothesis.

STEPS TO TEST THYPOTHESIS

1. Make the null hypothesis

2. select the suitable research method

3. do research and measure the result

4. analyze the data and test the hypothesis statistically

ASSIGNMENT:

Please write your research question, the research hypothesis and null hypothesis. Write them here as a comment to this post. Write also your class after your name at the end of the comment.

Reference:

Ary, Donald, et al. 2002. Introduction to Research in Education. Belmont: Wadswroth Group

有效的複利效應是什麼？

印象中，王永慶先生曾說過，「你所賺得一元不是你的，你所存的一元才是你的。」從基本的金融角度來說，你現在的一元，可能比明年的一元更有價值，為什麼呢？因為「通貨膨脹」的超強破壞力，它使得你的購買力下降，原本100元可以吃一餐，10年後，可能需要150元才能吃一餐，所以「購買力」下降了。這點從「財務自由的門檻」中就可以看出，在台灣每年最低生活費的增加速度高達 4.3%。




換句話說，以台灣20年來最低生活費的每年 4.3%的累加速度，若是沒有超過 4.3%的投資報酬率，基本上，你的實質購買力是一直在削減。一般人都會說，複利+時間就是最偉大的財富倍增公式，然而，若沒有排除通貨膨脹等要素，這樣的財富倍增公式其實不是有效的複利效應。我們以下面的定存增長率與物價增長率兩個來比較，為何定存利率產生的複利效應不是一個有效的複利效應，它並不會讓你的實質購買力增加？

定存利率     1.3%, 10 年後 1 元資產 增加成為 = 1.139 元
物價增長率 4.3%, 10 年後 1 元物價 增加成為 = 1.524 元

也就是說 10 年後您的 1 元資產已經買不到 1元物價的東西了，這裡的10年後的價差為 1.524 - 1.139 = 0.39 元，很可怕吧。同樣本來是 1 元的東西，因為本來 3% 的差距，10年後增加為 0.39/1.139 = 34% 的差距。所以根據此計算，定存 1.3% 所產生的複利效應基本上是無效的。

所以，有效的複利效應，重點是報酬率應該要高於物價增長率，或者是通貨膨脹。換句話說，當你的報酬率減去通貨膨脹或物價年增率後，若大於0，則具有有效的投資複利效應。

如何找到突破財務自由的路？

知道了財務自由的門檻，如何突破財務自由的門檻才能被稱為「財務自由」？既然，不想依靠著勞力的付出而取得的財務，理所當然的，依靠勞力所得的財務，即使超過財務自由的門檻，依舊無法被稱為財務自由！




根據 wiki 引用美國國稅局對 被動收入的定義，收入被分成三種.

1. 主動收入 
2. 被動收入
3. 投資組合收入

其中，被動收入可列舉出以下幾項

1. 從商業行為中，但又不需要自身參與的收入
2. 租金收入
3. 銀行的利息收入
4. 版稅收入、專利收入或軟體授權使用費
5. 從網路中的廣告所獲得的收入
6. 股票或債券中所獲得的股息或利息收入。(美國國稅局不認為這是被動收入)
7. 養老金收入。

對我個人的定義，只要是不花時間、花勞力去經營的收入，都可被稱為被動收入。這意謂著投資組合收入也是被動收入的一部份。

然而我認為這樣的分析似乎太快了一些，因為這些路都是帶我們去一個可以產生被動收入的地方，而這些地方都是需要先付出代價，才能享受「被動收入」的甜美果實。這個代價可能是 X 的成本， Y 的時間，也就是先主動後被動。

我們以前面的例子來看：
第一條「從商業行為中，但又不需要自身參與的收入」，我的解讀是當有一個商業系統，他已經能夠成熟運轉，這系統能自己產生獲利而不需要管理者介入太多，這就好像是一個金雞母，隨著時間產生金錢。然而，這系統絕不會憑空出現，期初一定需要我們的呵護照顧，直至成熟。這個期初所需付出的 X 及 Y，不知道會是多少？

第二條「租金收入」，租金收入通常必須擁有客戶想要的商品，我們可以租給客戶。然而，擁有商品需要成本 X，找到客戶需要付出時間 Y。若每次東西出租都要花費很大的力氣去找客戶，那麼就和主動收入差不多了。最理想的狀況是，第一次花時間去找到客戶後，可以不斷有租金的收入，這就太完美了。

第三條「銀行利息收入」，利息收入也是一樣需要一筆錢 X 存在銀行，經過一段時間 Y，才能產生收入。而 這筆錢則可能需要主動收入來產生，才能夠有錢放在銀行。然而，將錢放在銀行似乎不是一個很聰明的選擇。因為現在的殖利率都很低。

第四條「版稅、專利收入或軟體授權使用費」，建構版稅收入和軟體授權，都是要花上不少時間的，因為，這需要花時間撰寫，有人購買或使用，才有辦法獲得被動收入。而專利收入，其實牽涉到更複雜的層面，現在的科技產業，很多公司不是只單純賣產品，專利戰也是打得如火如荼，若沒有足夠的背景財力，即使，你的專利被冒用了，也很難去追討。或許，我比較不知道追討的方法，但也的確沒那麼容易啊。

第五條「從網路中的廣告所獲得的收入」，直觀上，這似乎是一個比較簡單易行的辦法，只要花時間將自己平常的生活的點點滴滴記錄下來或者專長教學，慢慢就可以累積出一些名氣，進而產生廣告收入，然而這個收入也是需要時間累積的，相反地，資本的支出反而比較少。

第六條「股票或債券中所獲得的股息或利息收入」，直觀上，這也是一個可行的方法，然而，投資股票或債券都是有相當的風險，因為價格都是起起伏伏，稍微一個事件，就造成股票的大崩盤，若沒有相應交易策略，很容易造成一些因小失大的損失。

第七條「養老金收入」，這條看起來像是銀行利息的另一面，將錢放到保險公司，透過理財規劃，讓自己老了有個養老金的收入，然而，若是投資報酬率不高的話，老年時候的「購買力」反而更差，因此，投入養老金，產品真的要慎選。

財務自由的門檻

財務自由是很多人的目標，當達到這個目標之後，意味著不需要超時超負荷的工作，也能擁有高品質的生活，妳可以像個貴婦，喝喝下午茶，逛逛百貨公司，聊聊是非八卦。你可以打打高爾夫球，玩玩社團，找個三五好友，每天喝個兩杯，享受一下「夫復何求」的豪情壯志。